The equity markets continue to look like nothing is going to stop the rally; the bond and mortgage markets are also joining in these days. The 10 yr note is about to test its key resistance at 3.28% that has stopped the decline on its yield three times previously. Mortgages are getting a lift today with news that the Obama Administration is considering pumping another $35B of our tax dollars into mortgage assistance to states and communities; don't know any details, or whether it will happen, bu…
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Added by Travis Neliton on September 28, 2009 at 3:21pm —
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At 8:00 this morning the rate markets traded weaker, chopping back and forth in a tight narrow range for the past six sessions. The 10 yr note at 8:30 -11/32 at 3.49%, continuing to bang off the 3.50% key support area; mortgage prices at 8:30 -6/32. At 9:00 the 10 yr -9/32 and mortgages -5/32, the DJIA futures +13. At 9:30 the DJIA opened unchanged, 10 yr -6/32, mortgage prices -4/32, (see below for 10:00 levels)
At 7:00 this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications data was up strong, most…
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Added by Travis Neliton on September 23, 2009 at 8:20am —
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The data released this morning was seen as good until you look closer;
weekly jobless claims declined 12K against forecasts of an increase in new filings, but continuing claims, those who remain on unemployment increased to 6.23 mil frm 6.101 mil last week. August housing starts headline showed starts increased 1.5%, the highest level since Nov 2008, however most of the starts were in multi-family and not single family homes.
The Philly Fed business index was much stronger than expected on the…
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Added by Travis Neliton on September 17, 2009 at 2:56pm —
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Given the run-up in the stock market today, the bond and mortgage markets managed to hold up well. That said, although we continue our longer view bullish for rates, in terms of trading we want to lock overnight.
A little choppy this morning but this afternoon things settled down with the rate markets ending the day with not much change. The various economic releases are continuing to be better than market forecasts; likely analysts are being conservative on coming up with estimates. Regardless…
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Added by Travis Neliton on September 16, 2009 at 1:58pm —
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Given the data next week, the technical failure of the 10 yr note at its resistance at 3.28%, and the unrelenting strength in the equity markets, we suggest locking all rate locks over the weekend; take the nice gains. We however continue to expect rates to move lower but from the present levels the market will need help to do so (some continual selling in equities). Still bullish but don't want to take the bet now.
Interest rates had another good day today; no inflation to worry about, no conc…
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Added by Travis Neliton on September 11, 2009 at 1:48pm —
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Some re-pricing today but since that prices of mortgages have come off their best levels. Tomorrow is roll over day when we begin tracking the Nov coupons; price drops of 12/32 between Oct and Nov. Given the roll and that prices are now not much better than at 9:30 this morning we suggest holding only a very small position of locked loans overnight. Still very bullish on the rate markets but it is likely to be choppy.
A very good day for the rate markets, even with the equity markets doing bett…
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Added by Travis Neliton on September 10, 2009 at 2:56pm —
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Well I certainly would hate to be the one to make someone think they are safe to let the Nov 30th home buyer tax credit deadline come and go and making the assumption this new bill that is on the floor currently is a given. But I definitely felt this is worth writing on.
There is a bill before the House and Senate right now addressing this issue of the expiring first time home buyer tax credit.
Now that the hype of the "CARS" or "Cash for Clunkers" has come and gone with a "huge success" if yo…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 26, 2009 at 9:43pm —
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Treasuries and mortgages at 8:30 trading unchanged from yesterday's close. The DJIA stock index traded -11 points. At 8:30 July durable goods orders were better than expected on the headline, up 4.9% against estimates of +3.0%; ex transportation orders, a more significant view were +0.8% a little weaker than +1.0% expected. Inventories were down 0.8%. The increase in overall orders was the largest monthly increase since July 2007. There was little reaction to the data in either stock trading or…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 26, 2009 at 9:01pm —
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Treasuries and mortgage markets opened weaker this morning after the selling on Friday that pushed interest rates up 13 basis points. No economic releases today but the rest of the week does have data to chew over. The main focus this week for treasury and mortgage markets is Treasury auctioning $109B of notes (2 yr, 5 yr, and 7 yr). Supply from Treasury generally keeps interest rates under pressure. Not only supply, but the stock market is playing against treasuries and mortgages as it continue…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 24, 2009 at 1:18pm —
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Prior to 8:30 the rate markets were trading a little lower in price with the early stock index trading a little better after yesterday's rally in the equity markets. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims, expected to be down 8K, were up 15K to 576K new unemployment filings. Continuing claims were 6.241 mil, up from 6.239 mil last week after a revision from 6.20 mil. The report confirms more jobs are being lost than were expected recently and sent the stock indexes back to flat and mortgage prices +4/32…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 20, 2009 at 11:59am —
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By Steve Sampson
The Fed provides banking services to America's banks and to Uncle Sam. That's the nitty-gritty part of its job. On the more glamorous side, it also develops and implements the nation's monetary policy--and in the process influences interest rates.
Mighty Money Supplier
The media often suggest that the Fed "sets" interest rates--as if the Fed chairman just says "let the rate be 4 percent" and the nation's banks make it so. But that's not how it works. Banks determine in…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 19, 2009 at 11:04am —
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Here we go again; the stock market is giong to open weaker this morning after trying to recover from Monday's decline yesterday. The early iompact has interest rates falling on treasuries and in the mortgage markets. At 9:00 the 10 yr note +27/32 at 3.41%, breaking resistance at 3.48% and clearing the way to a run to 3.28%, the low yield tagged back in early July. Mortgage rates will work lower along with the treasury market as long as the long awaited equity market correction continues. The DJI…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 19, 2009 at 8:11am —
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At 8:00 this morning prior to the 8:30 economic data, the 10 yr note -6/32 at 3.50% +3 BP, mortgage prices -5/32 frm yesterday's close; the DJIA +54. At 9:00 the DJIA index +28, off its best level; the 10 yr note -4/32 and mortgages traded -4/32.
July PPI, expected -0.2% and +0.1% on the core, came at -0.9% overall and -0.1% for the core rate. Yr/yr PPI -6.8%. Although PPI was weaker than expected, inflation isn't a front burner these days so it isn't the rocker it normally can be.
July housin…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 19, 2009 at 8:09am —
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5:45 EDT
The story this morning is the huge sell-off in the global equity markets, and the outlook for a serious decline in the US stock market this morning. At 8:20 the DJIA index traded at -163; the 1`0 yr note +28/32 and mortgage prices +14/32. All global stock markets were hit overnight, the long awaited correction in equity markets has arrived; last week the DJIA had its first weekly decline in a month. As we have noted many times the stock market has gotten way out in front of reality and…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 19, 2009 at 8:08am —
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Prior to 8:30 the 10 yr note traded -10/32 at 3.76%, mortgage prices were down 8/32 frm yesterday's close; the stock indexes were up substantially (DJIA +104). At 8:30 economic data flipped markets around; July retail sales were weaker than expected, -0.1% overall and -0.6% when auto sales are extracted. Weekly jobless claims were expected to be down 5K, but were up 4K to 558K with continuing claims declining to 6.20 mil frm 6.34 mil last week. The initial reaction took the 10 yr note from -10/3…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 13, 2009 at 8:34am —
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Interest rate markets started a little better early this morning with the stock indexes hanging close to yesterday's close. Today Treasury will auction $23B of 10 yr notes at 1:00. At 2:15 the FOMC meeting will conclude with their policy statement; no changes in interest rates are expected. Likely comments on the economy and re-affirming that inflation concerns are not prevalent now; but the Fed will be ever vigilant and nip it in the bud if there is any price increase pressures. Generally the s…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 12, 2009 at 8:38am —
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At 8:30 the treasury and mortgage markets continued yesterday's strong rally. The 10 yr note at 8:30 up 6/32 and mortgage prices up 7/32. Q2 productivity was much stronger than expected, +6.4% while unit labor costs were down a huge 5.8%. The stock indexes at 8:30 were trading weaker; the DJIA -18 and NASDAQ and S&P both down 3 points. The stock market is soft and that is propelling the rate markets to better levels, even in the face of today's $37B 3 yr note auction.
The WSJ today has a ve…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 11, 2009 at 8:22am —
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Rate markets started better this morning; the stock index trading was pointing to a lower open. Same thing; stocks weak, a little support for the bond and mortgage markets. No economic data today so watching stocks will be the focus. We are not looking for anything substantive for either market through the day. The benchmark 10 yr note broke its seven week support at 3.75% on Friday to close at 3.86%; projects a possible move to 4.00% for the note and mortgage rates up another 15 basis points.…
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Added by Travis Neliton on August 10, 2009 at 4:22pm —
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After pricing a few deals for clients this afternoon and where mortgage rates landed after a nice rally today I feel that considering an adjustable rate mortgage for a moderate range period like 5 to 7 years is making a lot of sense again. If you look at a 5-yr ARM rate, the gap is quite impressive between a 30-yr and 5-yr again and definitely worth considering if you feel you will only have the mortgage for 5 or 6 years.
Remember, conforming ARM’s are not the evil child of lending that the med…
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Added by Travis Neliton on July 10, 2009 at 6:26pm —
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Based on the "Making Work Pay" tax credit, employers now use new withholding tables to lower the amount of tax that is withheld from eligible workers' paychecks.
That means, you're probably receiving more money in each paycheck–up to $400 more per year if you are single and up to $800 more if you file jointly. While this sounds like a benefit, you need to make sure you don't end up paying in at the end of the year because you aren't withholding enough due to this rule.
What Should You Do?
Firs…
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Added by Travis Neliton on June 22, 2009 at 9:30am —
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