Travis Neliton's Page

The equity markets continue to look like nothing is going to stop the rally; the bond and mortgage markets are also joining in these days. The 10 yr note is about to test its key resistance at 3.28% that has stopped the decline on its yield three times previously. Mortgages are getting a lift today with news that the Obama Administration is considering pumping another $35B of our tax dollars into mortgage assistance to states and communities; don't know any details, or whether it will happen, bu… Continue

At 8:00 this morning the rate markets traded weaker, chopping back and forth in a tight narrow range for the past six sessions. The 10 yr note at 8:30 -11/32 at 3.49%, continuing to bang off the 3.50% key support area; mortgage prices at 8:30 -6/32. At 9:00 the 10 yr -9/32 and mortgages -5/32, the DJIA futures +13. At 9:30 the DJIA opened unchanged, 10 yr -6/32, mortgage prices -4/32, (see below for 10:00 levels)

At 7:00 this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications data was up strong, most… Continue

The data released this morning was seen as good until you look closer;

weekly jobless claims declined 12K against forecasts of an increase in new filings, but continuing claims, those who remain on unemployment increased to 6.23 mil frm 6.101 mil last week. August housing starts headline showed starts increased 1.5%, the highest level since Nov 2008, however most of the starts were in multi-family and not single family homes.

The Philly Fed business index was much stronger than expected on the… Continue

Given the run-up in the stock market today, the bond and mortgage markets managed to hold up well. That said, although we continue our longer view bullish for rates, in terms of trading we want to lock overnight.

A little choppy this morning but this afternoon things settled down with the rate markets ending the day with not much change. The various economic releases are continuing to be better than market forecasts; likely analysts are being conservative on coming up with estimates. Regardless… Continue

Given the data next week, the technical failure of the 10 yr note at its resistance at 3.28%, and the unrelenting strength in the equity markets, we suggest locking all rate locks over the weekend; take the nice gains. We however continue to expect rates to move lower but from the present levels the market will need help to do so (some continual selling in equities). Still bullish but don't want to take the bet now.

Interest rates had another good day today; no inflation to worry about, no conc… Continue